Areas around the Arkansas border (purple-shaded counties) will likely see a damaging ice storm tonight, with an inch of ice accumulation easily possible.
For Springfield and areas in the pink-shaded counties, we have a Winter Storm Warning issued with some freezing rain accumulation possible, but for us it will be mostly a sleet event, which could accumulate up to an inch — definitely enough to cause travel issues.
If that freezing rain area happened to shift north a few counties, we'd be in for it in Springfield. That probably won't happen, but it's worth noting that some of the models this winter have been plotting everything a little southeast of where they actually fall. We'll see how they do this time.
Last night, I was thinking it might not start until closer to 6 or 7 p.m., but the NWS is saying it could start as early as 3 p.m. for Springfield — so be watching/listening to the latest as we move on into the afternoon.
Here's some stuff from this morning's National Weather Service forecast discussion:
THINGS JUST GET WORSE THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE MID LEVELS. THEREFORE EXPECT A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THREW IN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INTRODUCED. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH...WITH A TONGUE OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES PUSHING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60. MEANWHILE...AN EAST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS SNOW OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH SLEET OVER MOST OTHER AREAS. PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING WILL BE VERY INTERESTING. WITH THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND COLD LOW LEVELS...THINK A LOT OF SLEET WILL FALL. DO SEE AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. AS YOU GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT... PRECIPITATION MAY TEND TO TAPER OFF A BIT OVER MANY AREAS AS THE MAIN LIFT SHIFTS EAST. COULD SEE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP.
PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE MAY AGAIN SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF DEEP UPWARD OMEGA AS A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE DEVELOPS WITH SOME AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE ALSO POSSIBLE. COOLING AND MOISTENING MID LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER TRANSITION BACK TOWARDS SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER. A LARGE SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED UP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY. WILL STILLNEED TO WATCH AREAS UP TOWARDS ROLLA FOR LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS.