Cool morning, severe wx later

It was a rather chilly 45 degrees when I took the dog out for his morning duties today. It seems that autumn is beginning to clinch down for the season.

But, severe weather will come into play for Thursday, according to the NWS. The ingredients will be present, but just exactly what types of severe weather remains to be seen.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TEND
TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT...BRINGING QUICK COOLING TO THE MID
LEVELS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH SHEAR PROFILES EASILY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS.


...THE BIGGEST QUESTION STILL REMAINS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
WILL BE PRESENT. THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC SITUATION WITH VERY
QUICK MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THAT SURFACE TROUGH. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT 60 PLUS DEW POINTS WILL MAKE IT NORTH INTO
THE AREA. THIS WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT MLCAPES APPROACHING OR
PERHAPS EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH A LOT OF QUESTIONS REMAIN...
ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT ALL MODES OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.