Weather Low Down

We've already heard that it'll be "our possible first snowfall of the season," several weeks ago when local meteorologists were looking at a little puny low of the northwest that could come in and put a little dusting on our cars.

Yeah, I woke up and saw nothing, too.

But, here's the deal. The U.S. weather pattern is shifting in that we are going to start seeing waves of energy move in from the southwestern U.S. into our neck of the woods.

That means that right now — and probably over the next several weeks — we will be seeing chances of snow in the forecast in southwest Missouri.

And you can pay attention to the forecast and know that if a snow graphic is in the seven-day outlook, it's a safe bet that snow probably will fall. If the meteorologist says "accumulating snow" during this current weather pattern, he or she does have a higher probability of that being accurate right now.

It's possible that this Wednesday afternoon/evening/night that we could honestly see our true first snow. I don't believe it'll be that significant, but I do think we'll actually see snow falling instead of squinting our eyes to see it barely snowing through the raindrops. The variables for this low to bring us some accumulating snow are (1) the track of the low and (2) the speed of the cold air mass coming in from Canada.

At this point, it looks like those receiving significant snowfall are probably areas in south central Missouri up into the St. Louis region. A special weather statement was issued earlier today from the St. Louis National Weather Service office:

THE LATEST WEATHER DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE MOST FAVORED REGION AT THIS TIME APPEARS
TO BE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AS WELL AS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ST LOUIS AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...HOWEVER ALL AREAS IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS APPEAR LIKELY TO GET SOME SNOW.

...BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME AREAS MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THIS STORM...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT
TO HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR WILL BUILD IN TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW AND ALSO WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM. ANY CHANGE TO THESE TWO ITEMS COULD DRASTICALLY IMPACT THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

Aaron's Articles will keep you updated on the track of this upper level low as it comes in.