Sunday, December 06, 2009

First accumulating snow on its way

Hebrew National trying to lick the snow as it fell last January.

The Ozarks will likely see its first accumulating snowfall this week.

Amounts are still up in the air because a few variables are still being assessed, but people in the Ozarks with the best shot of accumulating snow are northwest of I-44 as the upper level low will likely traverse that highway.

The National Weather Service's forecast discussion this morning:

THE NEXT CONCERN FOCUSES ON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OZARKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE OZARKS ALMOST RIDING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN THAT THE MODELS MAY NOT BE DIGGING THE
SYSTEM ENOUGH GIVEN THE EVENTUAL KICKER ENERGY IS STILL ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE SHORT
WAVE THAT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR THE SYSTEM WILL DIG IS JUST
NOW BEGINNING TO BE SAMPLED OVER ALASKA. BECAUSE OF THIS REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MID WEEK. STILL THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE OZARKS ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN
EARLY TUESDAY AS FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE COLD AIR SLIDES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK
OF THE STORM SYSTEM. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM
AND HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE DIGGING ENERGY OVER THE NORTHWEST.

AGAIN...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THE
UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS WINTER STORM
AND WHERE ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

3 comments:

News2K said...

This is going to be a close one. I have a really bad feeling that we may wind up with only cold cold rain. I am anxious to see what the next couple of model runs have to say.

Aaron said...

Yeah, I'm probably setting myself up for failure. It's all right, though, because I honestly don't want a snow day just yet since our first make-up day at school is Dec. 23.

Rachel said...

Aaron, that's a really ugly picture of Hebrew.