Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Winter Weather Alert

Today's little visit from winter weather will be a far cry from next week's weather. I've been reading blogs and forecasts for a few weeks now, and I have heard a lot of predictions for a mid-December storm. It might be arriving next week.

Forecast discussion from the National Weather Service is already confident of some accumulating wintry precip for early next week:

WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL FOUR TO FIVE DAYS OUT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING THAT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE COLD NEAR THE SURFACE. THE BIG QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS HOW DEEP THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE AS IT WILL HAVE MAJOR CONSEQUENCES ON PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT...INCLUDING SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. THE MORE SHALLOW THE COLD AIR...THE MORE LIKELY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK. A DEEPER COLD AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN PRECIP TYPE TRENDING TO MORE SLEET AND/OR SNOW. GIVEN THE OUTPUT FROM THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY GIVEN THE CONSENSUS.

The current text forecast from the NWS is:

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 29.

Monday: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 30.

Monday Night:
A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 24.

Tuesday: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 31.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Wednesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.


Models that go further out are even saying a possible chance of snow/winter weather on Friday of next week, too.

Get ready now!

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