No ice, please

A little good news in the discussions this morning of the upcoming winter storm: a major ice storm isn't looking as likely because the post frontal airmass will have enough depth to change freezing rain over to sleet and snow sooner than earlier thinking, according to the National Weather Service:

WE HAVE SOME GOOD NEWS TO DISCUSS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DEVASTATING FREEZING RAIN IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. THE THOUGHT PROCESS BEHIND THIS FORECAST HAS EVERYTHING TO DO WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT...AND THE DEPTH OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BLOW THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND SAG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW THE OVERALL AIRMASS TO BECOME DEEP ENOUGH...CAUSING ANY FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW IN A TIMELY MANNER.

That doesn't mean we're out of the woods for a nice little winter storm, though, indicated in the NWS forecast discussion.

DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN CAUSING IMPACTS ON ELEVATED SURFACES...SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON ROAD SURFACES ARE A GOOD BET. MONDAY MORNING COMMUTERS SHOULD CONSIDER THE LIKELIHOOD OF ROADWAYS BECOMING SLICK...DUE TO SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATION.

Overall thinking:

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY...CHANGING OVER TO SLEET...FOLLOWED BY SNOW. AGAIN...THE IMPORTANT ITEM THAT I WANT TO STRESS TO RESIDENTS OF SE KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS IS THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
HOWEVER...SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A MATTER OF FACT...DECENT SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY FORCE A MODERATE BAND OF SNOW SOMEWHERE WITHIN OR NEAR THE CWA.

DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THE WINTER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAYS EPISODE WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON ROADWAYS. MODOT AND KDOT ARE URGED TO MONITOR UPDATED SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.